Simulation and prediction of the use structure of Dalian coastal waters

The CA-Markov model and the multi-objective linear programming model were used to simulate and predict the use structure in Dalian coastal waters from the perspective of spatial distribution and quantity control. Among them, through the means of remote sensing interpretation, we obtained the current situation of Dalian sea area use and the multi-sequential change trend of use structure in Dalian in 1992, 2002, and 2012; based on the multi-objective linear programming method, the objective equations of economic, ecological and social benefits were established to optimize the configuration of the use structure of the Dalian coastal waters; the CA-Markov model was used to predict the future spatial distribution of use structure of Dalian coastal waters. The research results show that: (1) In the two periods of 1992－2002 and 2002－2012, the sea area used for fishery dominated the overall sea use, accounting for about 70% to 80%, however, it was in a negative growth state; the sea area used for recreation, transportation, protection, and land reclamation projects has shown an increasing trend, while the proportion of sea area for industrial use decreased first and then increased. (2) The combination of the CA-Markov model and the multi-objective linear programming model can give full play to the advantages of each model, and has high application value for simulating and predicting the sea area use structure and its spatial layout from the aspects of quantitative structure and spatial layout. (3) The research results are conducive to judging the evolution law and development trend of the sea area use structure, and can provide reference for the evaluation of the degree of marine development and protection, the adjustment of marine space planning, etc., and provide an important reference for more scientific management and utilization of marine space resources.