Abstract:
In order to evaluate the impacts of climate change and emission mitigation policies on China's marine economy, this paper developed a marine social accounting matrix (MSAM), and marine economy CGE model (MECGE), to reflect the impacts of climate change disasters and climate change policies. Additionally, the MECGE model was combined with climate change model to achieve the conversion from the influence of climate change on natural system to the influence on socioeconomic system. Based on the authoritative research results of climate change, 6 climate change scenarios were designed. The model output showed that the implementing emission mitigation policies scenario would increase China's coastal GDP by 0.19% and 0.12% comparing to the non-use emission mitigation policies under THmax and CHmax sub-scenarios, respectively. While for marine economy, the implementing emission mitigation policies could increase it by 1.67%, 0.72% and 0.37% comparing to non-use emission mitigation policies under THmax, Hmax, CHmax sub-scenarios, respectively. Therefore, the implementation of emission mitigation policies could play a significant role in promoting marine economic growth.