基于多元统计方法的海洋环境-经济系统协调发展度评价研究 

Evaluation of coordinated development of marine environment-economy system based on multivariate statistical methods

  • 摘要: 近年来由于沿海省市海洋经济发展迅速,导致其海洋环境与海洋经济矛盾日益凸显。为满足可持续发展要求,需充分掌握海洋环境-经济系统协调发展情况,故应对该系统进行科学评价。以广东省为例,根据海洋经济特点及环境特征,建立起由2个准则层、4个方案层、25个指标组成的海洋环境-经济系统协调发展度评价体系。先利用聚类分析法对指标内部联系进行分析,再应用主成分分析法与综合指数法相结合的方式对该指标体系进行计算。计算结果表明,2006~2008年广东省海洋环境-经济系统总体协调发展度呈上升趋势,但2009年又出现了下降情况,2010年上升到良好协调水平。总体来说,十一五期间其协调发展度仍然有些不稳定,应制定较为系统且长远的对策来提升其海洋环境与经济的协调度。

     

    Abstract: In recent years due to the marine economy is developing rapidly, the marine economy and marine environment contradict with each other heavily.It is necessary to know the coordinated development of marine environment-economy system in order to get the requirements of sustainable development by scientific evaluation of the system.Using the situation of Guangdong Province as an example, a marine economy-environment evaluation system which involving 2 rule layers, 4 schematic layers and 25 indexes was built based on marine economy's characteristics and marine environment's characteristics.The system is calculated by using the method of combination of principal component analysis and comprehensive index method.The results showed that marine economy - environment system's coordinated development degree of Guangdong Province was increased from 2006 to 2010, but it was decreased in 2009.And then the coordinated development degree was increased in 2010 which showed a good result.In general, the coordinated development degree in unstable state, so some systematic and long-term countermeasures should be taken to improve marine economy-environment system's coordinated development degree of Guangdong Province.

     

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