港口石油储备基地溢油风险概率计算

黄燕品; 李颖; 周新; 张至达; 刘丙新; 刘瑀

doi:10.13634/j.cnki.mes.2015.02.027

港口石油储备基地溢油风险概率计算

大连海事大学航海学院, 辽宁大连 116026

基金项目:

国家海洋公益项目(2012418012)

国家科技支撑项目(港区储罐安全风险防控与应急技术)

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金

详细信息

作者简介:
黄燕品(1972-),男,浙江舟山人,大连海事大学博士研究生,主要从事海事安全评估等研究,E-mail:yanpinh@hotmail.com

通讯作者:
李颖(1968-),女,辽宁大连人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水上溢油事故检测技术与溢油风险和处置效果评估等研究,E-mail:yldmu@126.com

中图分类号: X55;X820.4
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-03-02
- 修回日期: 2014-06-26
- 刊出日期: 2015-03-09

Calculating the probability of oil spill at port oil reserve base

Environment Information Institute, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China

摘要

摘要: 随着大连新港油罐区重大溢油事故的发生,港口溢油作为近年来备受关注的海洋灾害对港口环境及海洋生态环境造成的损害有目共睹,计算溢油风险概率是溢油事故风险评价和确定溢油事故等级的前提。本文介绍了直接计算法和故障树分析法两种溢油风险概率计算方法,通过对油罐区溢油事故资料的分析,建立事故诱因和它们之间的逻辑关系,结合故障树理论,建立故障树模型。以大连新港为例,根据底事件发生概率计算出顶事件的概率,通过分析计算油罐区每年发生溢油事故的风险概率为0.044,大约23 a发生一次。
- 油罐区 /
- 故障树 /
- 风险概率
Abstract: With the occurrence of oil spill accidents in Dalian New Port, port oil spills have been paid more attention as major marine disaster. The damages of port oil spills on port environment and marine eco-environments were obvious in recent years. Calculating oil spill risk probability is the premise of oil spill risk assessment and evaluating the spilled oil levels. This paper introduces two methods of calculating oil spill risk probability, according to analyze the information of tank farm oil spill accident, to know all the causes of accident and its logical relations, combine fault tree theory to establish fault tree model. For instance, Dalian new port, based on the probability of bottom event to calculate the probability of top event, through the analysis and calculation, the probability of tank farm oil spill accident is 0.044 every year, about 23 years happened a time.
- tank farm /
- fault tree /
- risk probability

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1.	周溢群，李杨. 涉水油田储罐溢油风险量化评估技术研究. 油气田环境保护. 2024(02): 49-53 . 百度学术
2.	宁方志，季民，陈许霞，孙培艳，王春晖. 基于GIS的港口储油罐溢油风险评价系统的建立. 海洋信息. 2016(02): 12-17 . 百度学术