两类El Nio Modoki事件时西北太平洋秋季热带气旋生成地的差异
Differences between the Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis location of two kinds of El Nio Modoki in autumn
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摘要: 以同年是否发生印度洋偶极子(IOD)正位相事件为标准,本文将El Nio Modoki 事件分为纯El Nio Modoki事件(p-ENM)、El Nio Modoki与IOD同时发生的事件(ENM-IOD)两类。选取了1979~2012年间较为显著的两次p-ENM事件(2004;2009)和两次ENM-IOD事件(1991;1994),对比发现:同类事件西北太平洋秋季热带气旋生成地的分布类似,但相比p-ENM事件,ENM-IOD事件的热带气旋生成地明显偏东。p-ENM秋季,西北太平洋西风异常较弱且局限在165E以西,范围较窄;而ENM-IOD秋季,西风异常强劲,并向东越过日界线。这使得ENM-IOD秋季季风槽东侧与p-ENM相比东伸20。同时,p-ENM秋季垂直风切变相对ENM-IOD秋季而言强度小,大值区窄,前者条件下热带气旋在西侧生成的可能性相对要大。季风槽位置和垂直风切变分布的差异,使得ENM-IOD秋季热带气旋生成地较p-ENM秋季明显偏东。Abstract: Based on that whether there is a positive IOD event in the same year, the El Nio Modoki events are divided into two kinds: p-ENM and ENM-IOD. Two typical p-ENM events (2004;2009) and two typical ENM-IOD events (1991;1994) are selected. The results of comparative analysis show that the same events have similar tropical cyclone genesis patterns while tropical cyclone genesis of the Northwest Pacific in ENM-IOD autumn shifts eastward compared with that in p-ENM autumn. The two p-ENM events have weak and narrow westerly wind anomaly area which is observed in the west of 165E, however the two ENM-IOD events have much stronger equatorial westerly wind anomaly that extends across the dateline. So the ENM-IOD autumn monsoon trough prolongs about 20 farther east than the p-ENM monsoon trough. At the same time, autumn vertical wind shear in the Northwest Pacific is weaker and narrower in p-ENM than in ENM-IOD. The differences in position of monsoon trough and vertical wind shear distribution make the tropical cyclone genesis location farther east in ENM-IOD autumn than in p-ENM autumn.