The impact prediction of sea level rise on the inundated area caused by 100-year- recurrence-period storm surge of Shandong Province around Bohai Bay
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摘要: 为了预防和减轻未来海平面上升所造成的淹没对山东沿渤海湾地区的影响,本文采用IPCC全球平均海平面上升数据、沿渤海湾地区地壳垂直运动数据、东风港潮位数据预测2100年100 a一遇的潮位线数据,并借助数字高程模型(DEM)、地理信息系统(GIS)预测海平面上升对潮位线位置的影响。研究结果为:(1)表达2100年潮位线位置的数据;(2)与2000年相比,2100年100 a一遇风暴潮增加的淹没区的空间分布图;(3)与2000年相比,2100年100 a一遇风暴潮增加的淹没区面积和向陆推进距离。预测结果表明:(1)2100年淹没范围随海平面上升幅度增加而增加;(2)相对于2000年,2100年新增的淹没区主要分布于研究区的中西部地区;(3)新增淹没地区人口、工业、农、林、牧、渔业将受到严重影响。Abstract: To prevent and mitigate the damage of inundation resulted from the sea-level rise around Bohai Bay of Shandong province in the future, global sea-level rise data, land subsidence data and the tide data of Dongfeng port were used to forecast the 100-year-recurrence-period storm surge tide line data in 2100. The impact of sea-level rise on the tide line was evaluated using Digital Elevation Model and Geographic Information System. According to the analysis, we got the following results: (1) the data of the tide level location in 2100; (2) the spacial distribution of the new inundated land caused by 100-year-recurrence-period tide level in 2100 compared with that of 2000; (3) the area of the new inundated land and the shoreward moving distance of coastline caused by 100-year-recurrence-period storm surge in 2100 compared with that of 2000. The data indicated these following conclusions: (1) the inundated area will be increased along with the sea-level rise in 2100; (2) compared with 2000, the new inundated area will mainly locate in the central and western region; (3)industry, agriculture, graziery, fishery and even the population of these new inundated areas would be heavily affected.
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Keywords:
- sea-level rise /
- Bohai Bay /
- geographic information system /
- digital elevation model /
- inundation
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期刊类型引用(7)
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