基于热力数值模式的营口海域海冰单轴压缩强度分布规律

Probability distribution of sea ice uniaxial compressive strength in Yingkou based on thermodynamic numerical model

  • 摘要: 海冰灾害对冰区人类经济活动有着重要影响。本文基于2020/2021年冬季在将军石港观测的海冰温度与海冰盐度数据,结合海冰卤水体积参数化方案,给出基于海冰温度的海冰卤水体积分数评估公式;结合近67年的海冰温度计算结果,重现历年海冰单轴压缩强度演变过程,发现营口海域海冰单轴压缩强度呈减小趋势(0.0027 MPa/a);分析海冰单轴压缩强度的概率分布,发现20世纪90年代后低强度海冰发生概率增大;评估营口海域20世纪60年代与近十年不同重现期下的单轴压缩强度,发现随着重现期的增大两个年份对应的力学强度差值也越来越大,且规范给出的重现期强度值小于上述计算结果。本文可为冰区经济活动的防灾减灾精细化管理提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: Sea ice has an important impact on human economic activity in ice areas. Based on the data of sea ice temperature and sea ice salinity observed in Jiangjunshi port, combined with the parametric formula of sea ice brine volume, this paper gives the formula for evaluating the sea ice brine volume fraction based on sea ice temperature. Combined with the results of sea ice temperature profile calculation in the 1951-2018, the evolution process of uniaxial compressive strength of sea ice is reproduced. The analysis of the uniaxial compressive intensity inter-annual average showed a decreasing trend in seasons at a rate of 0.0027 MPa/a. Finally, the probability distribution of sea ice uniaxial compressive intensity in Yingkou sea area was analyzed, and the occurrence probability of sea ice with less intensity increased after 1990s. The analysis of the return period of the sea ice mechanical strength in the Yingkou, showing that the difference between the 1960s and the last 10 years increases with the increase of the recurrence period, and the intensity value of the recurrence period given by the specification is smaller than the calculation results of this paper. This work will provide scientific support for the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation management strategies for sea ice disasters.

     

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