Abstract:
Based on the meteorological observation data of Yingkou Meteorological Station since 1951, and combined with the thermodynamic model HIGHTSI, this paper reproduces the ice thick growth and melt process from 1951 to 2018. After analyzing the calculation results, the multi-decadal mean ice thickness showed a quite symmetrical distribution with a multi-decadal maximum ice thickness of about 0.24 cm in the beginning of February. The multi-decadal ice-mass balance revealed decreasing trends of the maximum and average ice thickness of 2.55 cm/decade and 0.76 cm/decade, respectively. Since 1951, the evolution of sea ice thickness has shown the law that the larger the ice thickness, the earlier the probability of the maximum value occurring. The maximum probability of ice thickness greater than 40 cm occurred in 1950s, the maximum probability of ice thickness of 20 cmto 40 cm occurred in 1960s, the maximum probability of ice thickness of 10 cm to 20 cm occurred in 1970s, and the maximum probability of ice thickness of less than 10 cm occurred in 1990s. The probability of distribution of ice thickness in the ten-year season since 1951 is given, and the severity of ice conditions within ten years shows the fluctuation change between light ice years and heavy ice years, and the probability of each ice thickness range shows the law of first increasing and then decreasing. The 1990s showed a continuous light ice year, and the ice thickness range showed a continuous decreasing trend. This paper quantitatively describes the impact of climate change on Yingkou ice conditions, and lays a data foundation for the selection of sea ice parameters for marine engineering design.