基于TSA-BP模型的温州站台风风暴潮增水预测

Prediction of typhoon storm surge at Wenzhou station based on TSA-BP model

  • 摘要: 台风风暴潮灾害通常会对沿海地区造成巨大损失,因此,准确预测台风风暴潮增水对沿海地区的防灾、减灾工作具有现实意义。本文根据现有风暴潮增水预测研究的成果,建立了基于被囊群算法(tunicate swarm algorithm)优化的BP神经网络模型,将该模型应用于台风风暴潮增水预测研究中。本文选取影响温州验潮站的3个台风作为研究对象,收集并建立了3个台风影响验潮站过程的129个逐时数据样本。利用新模型对温州站进行风暴潮增水预测,结果表明,该模型与BP神经网络相比克服了陷入局部最优解的缺陷,与粒子群优化的BP神经网络模型相比,提升了模型收敛速度,具有更好的预测精度及稳定性。

     

    Abstract: Typhoon storm surge disasters usually cause huge losses to coastal areas. Therefore, accurate prediction of typhoon storm surge is of practical significance for disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal areas. In this paper, a BP neural network model based on the optimization of the tunicate swarm algorithm is established based on the results of existing storm surge prediction studies, and the model is applied to the study of typhoon storm surge prediction. In this paper, 129 time-by-time data samples of typhoons affecting the Wenzhou tide station were collected and established by selecting three typhoons affecting the Wenzhou tide station as the research object. The results show that the new model overcomes the defect of BP neural network falling into local optimal solutions, and improves the convergence speed of BP neural network model based on the optimization of particle swarm optimization algorithm. The TSA-BP model performs better prediction accuracy and stability.

     

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