大连市海域使用结构演变模拟及预测研究

Simulation and prediction of the use structure of Dalian coastal waters

  • 摘要: 本文基于CA-Markov模型与多目标线性规划模型,从空间分布和数量控制的角度,研究了大连市海域使用结构的发展趋势,模拟其演变规律,并进行了预测。其中,通过遥感解译获得1992年、2002年和2012年大连海域使用现状及海域使用结构多时序变化趋势;基于多目标线性规划模型,建立生态、经济、社会效益的目标方程,求解海域使用结构中各用海类型的最优配置方案;利用CA-Markov模型对大连市海域使用结构的空间布局进行预测。研究结果表明:(1)1992-2002年和2002-2012年两个时期,渔业用海面积占比具有绝对优势,为70%~80%,但是一直呈负增长态势;旅游娱乐用海、交通运输用海、保护用海、造地工程用海均持续增长,而工业用海面积则先下降后增长。(2)CA-Markov模型和多目标线性规划模型相结合,可发挥各模型优势,对于从数量结构和空间布局两方面模拟、预测海域使用结构及其空间布局具有较高应用价值。(3)研究结果有助于研判海域使用结构的演变规律和发展趋势,可为海洋开发和保护程度的评价、海洋空间规划的调整等提供借鉴,为更加科学地管理和利用海洋空间资源提供重要参考。

     

    Abstract: The CA-Markov model and the multi-objective linear programming model were used to simulate and predict the use structure in Dalian coastal waters from the perspective of spatial distribution and quantity control. Among them, through the means of remote sensing interpretation, we obtained the current situation of Dalian sea area use and the multi-sequential change trend of use structure in Dalian in 1992, 2002, and 2012; based on the multi-objective linear programming method, the objective equations of economic, ecological and social benefits were established to optimize the configuration of the use structure of the Dalian coastal waters; the CA-Markov model was used to predict the future spatial distribution of use structure of Dalian coastal waters. The research results show that: (1) In the two periods of 1992-2002 and 2002-2012, the sea area used for fishery dominated the overall sea use, accounting for about 70% to 80%, however, it was in a negative growth state; the sea area used for recreation, transportation, protection, and land reclamation projects has shown an increasing trend, while the proportion of sea area for industrial use decreased first and then increased. (2) The combination of the CA-Markov model and the multi-objective linear programming model can give full play to the advantages of each model, and has high application value for simulating and predicting the sea area use structure and its spatial layout from the aspects of quantitative structure and spatial layout. (3) The research results are conducive to judging the evolution law and development trend of the sea area use structure, and can provide reference for the evaluation of the degree of marine development and protection, the adjustment of marine space planning, etc., and provide an important reference for more scientific management and utilization of marine space resources.

     

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