内嵌POT损失分布拟合模型的风暴潮灾害风险价值测算

Measurement on the risk value of storm surge disaster with POT loss distribution fitting model

  • 摘要: 近年来,全球气候的异常变化导致风暴潮灾害频发,给我国造成了巨大灾害性损失。科学测算风暴潮灾害的风险价值,对于度量风暴潮灾害风险、估计风暴潮灾害损失、指导灾害风险有效分散具有重要意义。针对中国风暴潮灾害损失数据鲜明的频率低、厚尾性特征,本文引入极值理论的POT模型完成风暴潮灾害直接经济损失分布拟合,测算出不同置信水平下的风险价值,并通过了Kupiec失败频率检验。研究表明,运用POT模型测算不同置信水平下的风险价值可以作为今后中国风暴潮灾害风险科学度量以及单次灾害最大可能损失合理估计的基础。

     

    Abstract: Recently, global climate anomalous changes have caused frequent storm surge disasters which cause great disaster loss to our country. It's of great significance for measuring risk, estimating storm surge disaster loss and guiding to spread disaster risk effectively to measure value at risk of storm surge disaster scientifically. In view of the characteristics of low frequency and fat tail for storm surge disaster loss data in China, this paper introduces the POT model of extreme value theory to fit the direct economic loss distribution of storm surge disaster, measure value at risk under different confidence level and pass the Kupiec failure frequency test. The study shows that the value at risk under different confidence level estimated by the POT model could become the basis of scientific measurement for storm surge disaster risk and the reasonable estimates of the maximum possible loss for single disaster in China.

     

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